3 Responses

1. Paul A. Eisenstein

   July 19th, 2010 at 9:28 am

   1

   Ahem, folks, I appreciate you citing our story on TheDetroitBureau.com, and there are a reasonable number of reasons to question issues related to the Volt, but let’s have our facts together rather than engaging in the sort of ill-prepared rant that seems to be becoming the norm, rather than the exception, in politics these days.
   First and foremost, since the concept vehicle was first unveiled at the NAIAS in January 2007, the Chevy Volt was NEVER going to be an electric-only model. I would put my personal assets on that if somebody wants to take that bet. What has become their Voltaic platform was designed to permit numerous hybrid configurations, including alternatives such as fuel cells, but focusing on gas-electric. GM uses the term “Extended-Range Electric Vehicle,” or E-REV v plug-in hybrid because the wheels have always been designed to be driven by electric motors. Whatever hybrid power source, once the battery is below usable charge the vehicle’s engine kicks in and acts solely as a generator, sending electric current to the wheel motors.
   The 40-mile target is reasonable, even to those who don’t specifically favor GM, because national commuter data suggests that DOES cover more than 70% of the drives Americans will do in a typical day. But, as pointed out above (in a quote taken from TheDetroitBureau.com), a variety of factors impact battery range. The single biggest factor is, perhaps surprisingly, the use of electric heat, which actually sucks more current than lights or A/C.
   Oh, and my quote, above, is almost identical to what I have written for every battery-based vehicle on the road or coming. That includes the Nissan Leaf, Ford’s Focus Electric, and the Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid. Leaf’s 100-mile range could drop as low as 50 in bad conditions. The Prius? That model only is planned to get about 17 miles on battery power under the most ideal conditions, which means it is likely to allow less than 25-35% of U.S. commuters to drive solely on battery power.
   As for price, the latest data from Boston Consulting, (which is corroborated by numerous other outside experts), the typical lithium-ion battery currently costs about $1,000 per kilowatt/hour, or kWh, of stored energy. My sources at GM suggest they are confident they will soon have that down into the $600-800 range. Nissan insiders hint something at least as aggressive in terms of driving down cost. But, at least initially, the $1,000 price tag is likely to hold.
   That in mind, the 16 kWh T-shaped pack in the Volt would cost $16,000 to produce, without any consumer mark-up. That doesn’t include motors, controllers, and all the other elements of an electric drive system. Nor the price of the vehicle itself, which is pretty well equipped for its segment, by the way. So, $40,000, minus the $7,000 federal tax credit, is not unreasonable. Whether that will actually sell is an entirely different matter. The public could prove quite resistant to that premium, though if an owner uses off-peak charging and the utility is giving a good rate — which many plan to — the cost of energy per mile on battery power would be as little as 10% of gas. At 12,000 to 15,000 miles/year, the premium would be offset over a 5 to 7-year ownership cycle, especially if fuel prices again nudge $4/gallon.
   Oh, and Nissan is apparently pushing for a mid-$30,000 price, which would be in the mid to high-$20k’s range with the federal credit. Frankly, at $1,000 kWh for batteries, it appears they will be virtually giving the vehicle away initially, betting they can slash battery prices long-term.
   Check this story out for more on Volt: http://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2010/07/gm-flings-warranty-gauntlet-on-volt-ev/

   Paul A. Eisenstein
   Publisher, TheDetroitBureau.com

2. admin

   July 22nd, 2010 at 5:37 pm

   2

   Paul, thanks for your comment.

   I don’t dispute that GM has never unequivocally stated that the Volt would not be a hybrid. But it is certainly also true that they both have suggested so (see http://green.autoblog.com/2008/04/26/maximum-bob-talks-pure-ev-volt-battery-free-volt-and-prototype/) to experts and implied as much with their long-running PR, which has preceded production by a full 5 years.

   In any event, I’m not any more opposed to GM than I am to any other car corporation. The electric car is a hopeless endeavor in any hands, as I’ve long argued.

   But if GM never meant to at least imply an all-electric Volt, then why are they trying so hard to avoid the hybrid label?

   I’d say it’s because accepting it leaves the obvious point that they’re about to launch an unproven model that costs almost twice as much as a Prius, with little or no advantages to the buyer, even hypothetically. When using headlights, heating, air conditioning and other electric systems (not to mention the issue of leaving the Volt sitting in the lot at work or the mall slowly discharging) is going to reduce the “up to 40 miles” performance, what chances do people really have of saving anywhere close to enough money and gas to recoup the extra expense and risk, even assuming the thing isn’t a huge lemon?

3.   The $41,000 Phone Charger - Death by Car

   January 6th, 2011 at 4:06 pm

   3

   [...] admitted that the all-electric Chevy Volt was vaporware as well as haloware, GM is now preparing to peddle the actual hybrid version of the thing as a [...]